About
I trade stocks for a living and enjoy doing research on issues, companies, and industries. My business background consists of 20-odd years in the telecom product business, starting with Bell Labs and ending with Tekelec. My background is in software development, consulting, and management. I’m interested in several industries, but this blog is devoted to my views on alternative energy companies. I think it’s a great industry for the long haul, and the stocks… well, they’re stocks – whether they are great stocks or lousy stocks all depends. Which is what I’ll try to sort out here from time to time.
Alternative Energy Trading 
January 4, 2008 at 7:06 pm
Jerome, we share a common history in telecom (I worked at both RCA Optoelectronics, Bell Labs and Bell Northern Research years ago), and a common interest in alternative energy, and PV. Your “PV Industry in Oversupply” was excellent. Nice work and writing.
Just FYI: you’ll see what I do (invest on VC side in advanced tech, including possibly soon, thin-film solar) at the http://www.digitalpower.com. You’ll also see I write publicly about energy investing, for Forbes. Columns at http://www.tech-pundit.com
Best
Mark
January 7, 2008 at 2:51 am
Interesting to hear your thoughts on the PV bust coming in 2008.
Although I have not read thoroughly the article, but I did take a quick glance and agree the bust IS coming.
Just a comment on the “supply and demand” chart you compiled.
The “supply” is actually the capacity annouced by the cell makers. However, the real production highly depends on their effort on getting their hands on the raw material.
For example, Gintect claims they will be making 580MW in 2008.
But I am skeptical whether they will be running 100% capacity. Same case with dozens of cell makers which claims to have 3 digit production capacity.
Normally, I would give a lets say 40% discount on the production capacities made public by cell makers.
This does not prevent the bust, but do it down until we see more government supported subsidies popping out and replacing the matured ones.
January 12, 2008 at 1:47 am
JB,
Great insight into the PV industries overall upcoming supply and demand situation. Being in the industry ( developer) one thing I realize the more things change the more they stay the same. This is true for investors and Manufacturers moving forward.
Several issues of interest which may have an effect, good or bad are the sustainability issues and carbon reduction strategies related to such. This may in fact help to drive demand albeit less then with goverment incentives, but as you mentioned, if supply is greater than demand, margins shrink and the cost to consumer / integrator is less. The lower cost combined with the opportunity to incentivise carbon via carbon credits could raise demand. Having a new president in 09 couldn’t hurt either, we may see again a push to tax the oil industry and fund renewables, and a possible federal mandate RPS for all states creating a compliance market for carbon similar to Kyoto, which would definately drive denmand.
Failure to extend the ITC will basically Kill the large utility scale CSP ( Abengoa, Ausra, Brightsource,etc) deals altogether, as they have a 6-8 year lifecycle. Tax equity investors will not take the risk .
Additionally, new CPV technologies that use Emcore chips threaten PV as costs are much cheaper to produce these and they are projected to have over 40% efficiency. Once the applicable systems technologies that use these chips come online, traditional PV manufacturing may become an old technology, causing an even greater glut.
Thin films in general are excellent hedge but due to their reduced efficiency, a much larger required service area is required to produce the same energy as traditional PV, which would lend this technology away from distributed energy and largely for large scale PV systems only.
Ultimately it will be a while till we open more nuclear plants or “clean coal” that’s an oxymoron, so our demand is increasing and fuel costs keep going up forcing us to look to all renewables and energy efficiency.
A better short play might be including stocks like EnerNoc, Comverge, Itron, Lime, and others in smart grid technologies, demand side management, energy efficiency, and demand response.
I think you are very correct in your position on stocks that are not vertically integrated, MEMC, LDK, etc. are going to be stuck between a silicon rock and a hard place.
Regards, Green Gene
January 15, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Greetings Mr Ball
Thank you for the exellent summary of the present and furture supply and demand situtaion for the PV market. Nice to have some one of your experise combine the econimics with the techonolgy.
Based on past history of commoditeis when quanity suuplied and quainty demanded spread to large ,prices will follow. I agree the place to be is the low cost provider per watt. Furthermore as you and previous post mention there will market segmentation based on effceincy per square foot. People with small footprints of avaible solar space relative to needs will pay a premium to maximise the yield from that space ie (Home owners in ( Europe,California and Neveda etc). Companies and individuals with space, for example Neveda dessert solar developers will be after the cheapest per watt, with efficeincy taking a second place.
A favor to ask, another area of interest is Lithium Battery Companies & Technolgy. would you be willing to put toghter a lithium battery summary equalivalent to the PV solar summary?
Once again Thank You for the excellent article.
Best Wishes
Go Green
February 22, 2009 at 5:56 pm
What’s the deal on G24i….. do you have an opinion on them and do they have a trading symbol. I have been unable to source them. Thanks for this blog it is AWESOME !!! Your entries are amazing and I really appreciate your expertise.
James