PV Supply/Demand Data
By jeromeball
Here is my data on PV supply/demand.
Supply
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Updated 1/1/2008 |
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Source notes: |
LB – Lehman Bros |
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ER – Earnings report |
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PR – Company press release |
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NREL – Natl Renewable Energy Labs |
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| SUPPLY |
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Manufacturing Capacity, year-end
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| Symbol |
Company |
Source (capacity) |
2008
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2009
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2010
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Advent Solar |
PR 2/9/07 |
25
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25
|
25
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| asti |
Ascent Solar |
PR 12/17/2007 |
1.5
|
25
|
25
|
|
Avancis |
website |
20
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20
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20
|
|
Bangkok Solar |
LB 11/1 |
60
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70
|
80
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Big Sun Energy |
PR 11/13/07 |
90
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90
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90
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Blue Chip Energy |
website, 7/30/07 PR |
50
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50
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50
|
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Blue Square Energy |
gunther portfolio blog |
|
20
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20
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BP Solar |
LB 11/1 |
360
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440
|
600
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Brilliant 234 |
qcells pres 9/30/07 |
25
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25
|
25
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Calyxo |
qcells pres 9/30/07 |
25
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25
|
25
|
| csiq |
Canadian Solar |
LB 11/15 |
250
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250
|
250
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Central Electronics India |
website |
10
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10
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10
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China Solar Power |
PR 10/25/07, solarbuzz |
50
|
64
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64
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| csun |
China Sunergy |
IPO filings |
392
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392
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392
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CMC/Sunwell |
Digitimes 12/12/07, Taipei Times 8/13/07 |
50
|
100
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100
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CSG Solar AG |
qcells pres 9/30/07 |
25
|
25
|
25
|
| dsti |
Daystar |
3Q07 rpt |
25
|
25
|
25
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DelSolar |
website, |
25
|
25
|
25
|
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Emcore Solar Power |
7/11/07 pres., CEUT conf. |
50
|
50
|
50
|
| ener |
Energy Conversion Devices |
unisolar 2/16/06 PR |
180
|
180
|
300
|
|
EPV Solar |
PR 6/21/07 |
85
|
170
|
255
|
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Ersol |
11/16/07 PR |
220
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220
|
400
|
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Ersol thin-film |
NREL 9/07 report |
|
|
40
|
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E-Ton |
LB 11/1 |
240
|
290
|
320
|
| eslr |
Evergreen |
company- 12/11/07 investor pres |
58
|
170
|
170
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EverQ JV |
eslr 12/11/07 pres |
50
|
200
|
200
|
| fslr |
First Solar |
company -11/07 PGE conf, LB 11/6/07 |
693
|
910
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1302
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Flexcell |
qcells pres 9/30/07 |
25
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25
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25
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G24i |
ICWales, 12/18/07 |
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Gintech |
Taiwan Headlines, 12/07/07 |
580
|
580
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1500
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Global Photonic |
website |
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Green Energy Tech |
LB 11/1, Taiwan Headlines, 12/07/07 |
0
|
30
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60
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Heliovolt |
PR 12/20/07 |
20
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20
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20
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Honda |
11/12 PR |
28
|
28
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28
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Isofoton |
LB 11/1 |
170
|
210
|
250
|
| jaso |
JA Solar |
LB 11/26, LB 11/1, LB 10/23 |
425
|
600
|
800
|
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Jetion |
website |
100
|
100
|
100
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Kaneka |
NREL 9/07, company website, Digitimes 10/19/07 |
70
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70
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70
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Kenmos/NanoPV |
Photon 12/07 article |
30
|
30
|
30
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KPE |
website (psec.co.kr) |
40
|
40
|
40
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Kyocera |
LB 11/1 |
330
|
400
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475
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Martifer Group |
PR 9/24/07 |
50
|
50
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50
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Miasole |
LB 11/1 |
20
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40
|
50
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Mitsubishi |
LB 11/1 |
300
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360
|
500
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Mitsubishi thin-film |
NREL 9/07 |
15
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15
|
70
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Mosel |
Taipei Times 8/13/07 |
30
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30
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30
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Moser Baer PV |
MBPV PR, 8/29/06. Elec News 3/5/07. MBPV PR 11/30/07. |
80
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200
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500
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Motech |
LB 11/1 |
330
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450
|
600
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Nanosolar |
globe street, 6/24/06 |
430
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430
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430
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Nantong Qiangsheng PV (QS Solar) |
china daily,12/11/07 |
75
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300
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500
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Neo Solar Power (powerchip) |
Taiwan Economic News, 10/18/07 |
210
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210
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570
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Nexpower /UMC |
Taiwan Headlines, 12/07/07, company website |
25
|
25
|
100
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Ningbo Solar Power |
Chinese Academy of Science, Wenjing pres. |
100
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100
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100
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OptiSolar |
website, gunther blog |
0
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0
|
40
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PhotoVoltech |
PR 11/21/07 |
80
|
140
|
140
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Photowatt International |
website |
25
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25
|
25
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Powercom |
PR 2/26/07 |
30
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30
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90
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Prime Star |
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Prosperity Solar |
Spire PR 10/16/06 |
10
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10
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10
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Qcells |
LB 11/1, Qcells 3q07 rpt 11/14/07 |
700
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850
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1100
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Qcells thin-film |
qcells pres 9/30/07 |
|
250
|
500
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REC |
LB 11/1 |
80
|
150
|
280
|
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sanyo |
LB 11/1 |
300
|
400
|
475
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Schott solar |
PR 9/19/07 |
130
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190
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450
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Schott solar thermal |
PR 6/8/07 |
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Schott solar, thin-film |
PR 11/7/07 |
33
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33
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100
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Sharp – Katsuragi |
Pvtech,11/27 |
710
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710
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710
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Sharp- Sakai, |
sharp PR, Reuters 12/15/07 |
|
1000
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1000
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Showa Shell |
NREL 9/07 report |
20
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20
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80
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Signet Solar |
PR 6/7/07 |
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Sinonar |
amer chamber commerce taiwan, v37 n9 |
15
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15
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40
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| soen |
Solar EnerTech |
PR 12/18/07 |
25
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50
|
50
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Solar Morph |
PR (equation) – 7/11/07 LB 11/1 |
0
|
20
|
60
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Solar Systems (australia) |
PR 10/4/07 |
|
300
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300
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Solar-Fabrik/ SEP subsid |
website |
25
|
25
|
25
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| solf |
Solarfun |
LB 11/1 |
250
|
300
|
350
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Solarmer |
website |
|
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Solarworld AG |
LB 11/1 |
338
|
390
|
475
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SolFocus |
website |
|
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Solibro |
qcells pres 9/30/07 |
25
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25
|
25
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Solland Solar |
11/15 PR |
170
|
170
|
500
|
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Solopower |
PR 7/12/07, cnet news 7/07 |
20
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20
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20
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Spectrolab (Boeing) |
|
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Sunfilm |
PR 11/8/07 |
30
|
60
|
60
|
| spwr |
Sunpower |
3Q07 ER |
414
|
574
|
574
|
| stp |
Suntech |
LB 11/1, company PR 12/11/07 |
1100
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1400
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2000
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Sunways |
3Q07 rpt, unicredit analyst report |
116
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116
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116
|
| tsl |
Trina Solar |
3Q07 ER |
350
|
350
|
350
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T-Solar Global |
AMAT PR,3/20/07 |
40
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40
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40
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Unitech |
Taipei Times 8/13/07 |
30
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30
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30
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Wurth Solar |
PR 10/27/06 |
15
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15
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15
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XsunX |
PR 12/3/07 |
25
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25
|
100
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| yge |
Yingli Green Energy |
12/11 PR |
400
|
600
|
600
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Yunnan Tianda |
Chinese Academy of Science, Wenjing pres., website |
50
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50
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50
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Zhejiang Sunflower |
Chinese Academy of Science, Wenjing pres., website |
100
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100
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100
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| Subtotal -Solar PV |
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12198.5
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16697
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22666
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| SUPPLY – Solar Thermal |
|
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Ausra |
Renewable Energy Access,12/14/07 |
700
|
700
|
700
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| Subtotal – Solar Thermal |
|
700
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700
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700
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SUPPLY – Total |
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12898.5
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17397
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23366
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Supply, LB 11/1 report total |
|
7789
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10200
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13237
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Demand
| Author |
Source |
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
| UBS |
Q-cells 11/14/07 pres. (approx) |
5000
|
8000
|
10500
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| Merrill Lynch |
EMCORE 7/11/07 pres. (approx) |
3500
|
5000
|
7000
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| Lehman Bros |
LB 11/1 report |
3544
|
4792
|
6500
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| EPIA – policy driven scenario |
epia.org |
3100
|
4300
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5600
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| Average |
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3786
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5523
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7400
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This entry was posted on January 2, 2008 at 7:51 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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January 7, 2008 at 2:40 am
To what extent are these plans dependent upon additional financings? Are execution delays likely, especially among new players?
If solar equity values are impacted now, some of these buildouts could be threatened. The problem begins to self correct as soon as investors see the problem. In a sense, the longer and higher the “bubble” goes, the harder the hangover will be.
A question on your conclusions: If these PV capacity plans all go forward, will the PV players maintain strong silicon purchasing for a while? Could the silicon wafer makers benefit from this – or at least postpone their own downturn? How might the impact on wafer makers vs. PV makers differ in timing and magnitude?
You make a point that Akeena could benefit, as it buys PV cells wholesale. From a valuation standpoint, would you agree that there will be a negative halo effect if the other solar stocks crash, that will hit AKNS as well? Moreover, if project developers delay their plans, won’ that hit AKNS, at least over the next year or two?
Finally, what implications would a solar stock downturn have? I believe it will spur M&A by large companies – energy firms, tech firms, diversified industrials (such as GE), and even private equity – buying up companies at a discount to construction cost.
Would it catalyze interest in any other energy sources and technologies? Or a greater reckoning about energy sources for the future?
Thanks.
January 8, 2008 at 2:48 am
I cannot deny your mathematical calculation since I’m a software
developer with math and statistics background. But I think one thing
you missed in your research is that what exactly a solar company
stock worth if there is oversupply. Take LDK as an example. I did
some calculation on LDK with following assumptions (oversupply
condition late 2008 and into 2009 and beyond):
2007 ASP = $2.2/W (fact)
2008 ASP = $2.0/W (lower ASP due to slightly oversupply late 2008)
2009 ASP = $1.7/W (lower ASP due to oversupply through 2009)
2010 ASP = $1.4/W (Lowest ASP due to significant oversupply)
With these numbers, and normal valuation of a typical stock (PEG = 1
represents fair value), my conclusion is that LDK is way under valued
at current price which is just opposite of your conclusion.
Note that I have counted in the demand may increase significantly due
to the price decrease. When a silicon wafer ASP is less than $1.5/W
and some cost cutting by cell producers, solar energy will be
comparable with wind energy. When silicon wafer ASP close to $1/W,
solar energy can compete with traditional energy.
How much LDK can profit from $1/W ASP? Not too bad. it only needs
silicon price $40/kg to achieve 30% net profit margin (42% gross margin).
While $40/kg cost is a typical high end of silicon production.
This is what I think you have missed.
January 8, 2008 at 3:09 am
“Note that I have counted in the demand”
I mean
“Note that I have NOT counted in the demand”.
and
“While $40/kg cost is a typical high end of silicon production.”
I mean
“While $40/kg cost is a typical high end COST of silicon production. and LDK
will have lower cost by 2009 – 2010″.
January 16, 2008 at 2:50 am
This comment is for John (comments above) or anyone who can clarify this:
I understand your point that even if we assume oversupply, we need to ask what the right valuations are for these companies.
John states that when the wafer ASP goes to $1/W, solar can compete with traditional energy.
A wafer ASP of $1, based on today’s cost and margin levels through the supply chain, implies an end user cost (before subsidies) of close to $4.50/Wp installed. I base this on some common assumptions, starting with a $2.20/W wafer price, working up to a $3.80 module price, and with the BOS and installer margin, getting to $5.65/Wp installed.
Is the basis of my disconnect in these calculations so far? If so, could you share what your understanding of current price levels is?
My view is that to even begin to compete with conventional energy, you need to get down below $0.10/kWh. Is that fair? The answer is probably 5 cents in most places, but perhaps with gas generation in California, its higher. Obviously in Japan it is higher. Is 10 cents a conservative benchmark to define “competitive”?
If so, based on 5 hours/sun/day average, a 5% discount rate and a 30-35 year life span, you would need to be at $2.50/Wp end user cost (before subsidies) to get down below 10 cents on an all-in basis.
Please identify where in the chain here my calculations may not be consistent with yours. If we include CA or NJ’s subsidies, clearly those numbers look better, but then we are using a different understanding of what “competitive” means.
Finally, I disagree with your point on valuation. PEGs are useful shorthand in gauging relative valuations for companies with differing and rapid growth rates. But it is not a valuation end in itself. Moreover, for a PEG to be valid, you need to ask what the ramp-down (or up) in earnings growth is beyond a year or two. The scenario we are discussing suggests growth rates could taper off in a pronounced way.
I like your argument that LDK could maintain good margins at $1/W wafer ASPS if silicon prices come down. I think that’s the right point to start from, and then ask what growth rate is achievable in a 5-10 year horizon to really value the thing.
There is no getting away from Mr. Ball’s fundamental point that DEMAND may experience a real shift downward. Exploring the future trends in cash subsidies is the key parameter that dictates the rest of the numbers. I don’t think we have enough information to opine on that.
January 16, 2008 at 2:59 am
Does these parity calculations typically assume any scrap value for the silicon at the end of the useful life of the module?
Could anyone suggest a site that details the $/kWh calculations for natural gas, coal/and or any other generation methods — that includes the detailed assumptions necessary to reproduce and compare the costs?
Thank you.
January 28, 2008 at 4:18 pm
PV Supply/Demand Data
PV Supply/Demand Data,Here is my data on PV supply/demand.Supply Updated 1/1/2008Source notes:LB – Lehman BrosER – Earnings reportPR – Company press release NREL – Natl Renewable Energy LabsSUPPLY   Manufacturing Capacity, year-endSymbol…
March 9, 2008 at 10:31 am
The thermo-aolar (CSP) section of this table dosent show what is really happening in this industry. In Spain, 10 projects will begin construction in the next 6 months, and another 5 are allready in construction. These projetcs are been pushed forward by firms like Acciona, Abengoa, ACS-Dragados, and Iberdrola. Those are the big boys of CSP, and they are building new capacity for parts. Ausra is not a relevant player in this field.